A Season of Dread for Florida’s Economy and Environment
By John Koenig
Editor and Publisher
A low-pressure system formed out in the Atlantic this week. Even though the chances of it turning into something bigger and more dangerous this early in the hurricane season are slim, I find myself checking its status several times a day. I do so with a sense of dread that I haven’t felt since 2004.
That was the year of Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne: four hurricanes that slammed into Florida in just six weeks. By the time Ivan and Jeanne came along, we were so battered and bruised that we could barely raise the storm shutters in defense.
That same sensation returned this week as I stared at the low-pressure area on the weather map: Oh, please, not another one.
Of course, we haven’t had even a single hurricane so far this year. Nevertheless, between the blows to our economy and the blowout of BP Deepwater Horizon, it already feels like we’ve had more than we can withstand. So any hurricane at this point would come at us like the terrible perfect storm.
On Sept. 13, 1964, after Hurricane Dora, Gov. Farris Bryant (dark suit, center of the boat) got a close look at flooding in Live Oak, where water stood up to 5 feet deep. An estimated 18 inches of rain fell over a three-day period. (State Library and Archives of Florida)
Florida’s economy is in shambles. Over the past three years, we’ve lost nearly 10 percent of the jobs in this state. The value of our homes is down more than 40 percent.
Even as it seems we’ve finally hit bottom and that our economy is stabilizing, more bad news coming.
The end of the space shuttle and other programs at Kennedy Space Center could cost 23,000 direct and indirect jobs. As we reported previously at FloridaThinks, state government faces an even tougher year in 2011, because the federal stimulus dollars that have helped mask the extent of our budget deficit will be gone. So more painful state budget cuts await us next year, regardless of what else happens in our economy.
That’s a certainty even before the full economic impact of the BP oil spill is known.
Sean Snaith, an economist at the University of Central Florida, conservatively estimated last week that the spill could cost Florida 39,000 jobs, mostly in tourism and fisheries, and drain another $2.2 billion from our beleaguered economy. His worst-case scenario – a loss of 50 percent of the tourism business in the Panhandle and Keys – predicted a loss of nearly 200,000 jobs and $10 billion in revenues.
“This is a punch that lands in Florida even while we’re still on wobbly legs,” Snaith said.
I can’t help wondering how much worse would a hurricane – or God forbid, a succession of hurricanes like in 2004 – make the patient on wobbly legs. What would a hurricane do, for instance, to all of that crude oil spewing out into the Gulf of Mexico?
One scenario presented by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) suggests that the churn from a hurricane might actually help by accelerating the oil biodegradation process. But NOAA also says the storm surge could throw oil that might otherwise be dispersed out into the ocean up onto our beaches and into our estuaries and mangroves.
Fact is, we can’t know the environmental impact until a hurricane happens – if it happens.
But it is hard to come up with any hurricane scenario that doesn’t further weaken our economy. So far, for instance, the oil spill is only dampening tourism in the Gulf coast area. A hurricane would probably chase tourists away from Florida’s inland and Atlantic coast resorts, as well.
And for our real estate and construction industries? An irrepressible optimist might argue that a hurricane could help by wiping out some of the state’s excess housing inventory and creating new jobs in construction for damage repair.
But a recent conversation with a Sarasota real estate marketer suggests another likely possibility. The executive reported that his brokerage hasn’t been able to close a deal on coastal property in weeks because people are afraid of what the oil spill might do to waterfront home values. A hurricane or two would leave people only more afraid to invest in Florida real estate.
In the end, there’s not much that any of us can do to change this situation or the outlook. We can only be aware of the potential for further disaster that accompanies hurricane season.
For my part, I’ll stop staring at the weather map now and turn my attention back to things I can do immediately to strengthen my own business and, with it, Florida’s economy. I can probably manage that while also keeping my fingers crossed.
